As colleges and universities move deeper into planning for the 2026 – 2027 academic year, one reality is clear: the operating environment has fundamentally changed.
For higher education leaders, the challenge is no longer predicting what might happen next. The challenge is determining how to lead institutions when long‑standing assumptions about stability, funding and accountability no longer hold.
These conditions elevate strategic planning itself into a high‑risk area. Institutions that continue to rely on stable assumptions, static plans or historically siloed risk management practices face increased exposure to financial, compliance, operational and reputational risk.
Key Risks Identified
1. Strategic Planning Built on Unstable Assumptions
Institutions could be finalizing 2026 – 2027 academic year plans using assumptions that are no longer consistently reliable. Particularly around enrollment trends, federal policy stability, research funding continuity and state capacity to absorb federal responsibility shifts
Risks associated with unstable Strategic Planning:
- Strategic plans may become hard to execute if conditions shift mid‑cycle
- A lack of predefined triggers to adjust course, resulting in delayed or reactive decision‑making
Possible risk mitigation approaches:
- Establish formal decision thresholds (e.g., enrollment variance, funding delays) that require executive or board review
- Require periodic assumption stress‑testing and reporting to governance bodies
- Establish a task force that meets routinely to evaluate the pace of change and the impact on the University and key assumptions
2. Concentration Risk in International Enrollment
For institutions with meaningful tuition dependence on international students, particularly from a limited number of countries, they could face heightened exposure due to policy restrictions and geopolitical volatility
Risks associated with International Enrollment:
- Sudden enrollment declines could impact tuition revenue, housing, staffing and academic capacity
- Financial planning may overestimate revenue stability tied to international populations
Possible risk mitigation approaches:
- Increase data analytics and trend analysis for international student enrollment
- Improvement of international student retention efforts
- Implement contingency plans that link enrollment declines to budgeting adjustments
3. Research Funding Exposure and Governance Gaps
Due to the ever-changing uncertainty in federal research funding, the increasing influence politics play and a shift in the country’s priorities, Higher Education institutions can be at risk for a lack of funding and for gaps in governance.
Risks associated with funding exposure and governance gaps:
- Institutions may lack clarity on which research commitments are protected during funding disruptions
- Bridge funding decisions may be made inconsistently or without governance oversight
Possible risk mitigation approaches:
- Require documented research funding prioritization criteria approved by senior leadership
- Establish formal governance protocols
- Include research funding concentration and disruption risk on the University’s enterprise risk register
4. Accreditation as a Strategic, Risk
Accreditation dynamics are evolving, increasing the likelihood of unexpected requirements or timing disruptions that can derail multiyear initiatives. Institutions may have to invest time and money to become compliant with the updated requirements of accreditation.
Risk:
- Institutions may underestimate accreditation‑related disruptions to strategic initiatives
- Boards may not have adequate visibility into accreditation risk exposure
Possible risk mitigation approaches:
- Consider elevating accreditation oversight to a governance‑level risk discussion
- Consider monitoring accreditor developments outside routine cycles
Higher Education Institutions that have embedded flexibility, transparency and disciplined oversight into their planning processes will be better positioned to navigate 2026 – 2027 academic year and beyond.
About Schneider Downs Higher Education Services
The Schneider Downs Higher Education industry group is a dedicated team of experienced professionals specializing in serving institutions from high schools to universities. Our experience in audit and assurance, tax advisory, technology and data and more allow our professionals to stay ahead of the latest trends, developments and challenges within the education sector and provide timely and practical solutions to our clients.
